November saw historic levels on literally all major cattle and beef products, including Choice carcass cut-out values (weekly average of 196.64), 50 percent lean beef trimmings, which are the base for most ground beef mixtures (127.45 cwt), live slaughter cattle (five-area feedlot region weighted average steer price of 125.49), yearling feeder cattle (CME Feeder Cattle Cash Settlement Index of 143.87 based on a 750-pound steer), and all classes of lightweight calves throughout the country, which are currently selling closer to $2 per pound than $1 per pound.

Year-end profit taking and holiday pressure caused markets to retreat from their record highs in December, but fundamental indicators promise another banner year, with perhaps more record-breaking performances and certainly higher average prices for 2012.

Advertisement

Fed cattle prices ended the year roughly $20 higher than the beginning of 2011 and feeder cattle prices gained $25 to $30 over the 12-month period.

Backgrounders were busy assembling next spring’s stocker cattle during the fall run, which caused price levels on lightweight calves (under 450 pounds) to be over $40 higher than a year earlier.

Record higher feeder and fed cattle prices were also achieved with relatively large cattle-on-feed inventories from the huge numbers of displaced drought calves in the Southern Plains.

Once these cattle are gone, feeder cattle supplies will be extremely tight during 2012, just as our export demand has finally regained pre-BSE levels.

Shipments of U.S. beef to other countries increased over 25 percent in 2011, with our neighbors Canada and Mexico leading the way. Japan continues to increase their orders for U.S. product and the expansion of new customers in eastern Europe and Asia is very exciting for the future of beef exports.

The strange-sounding cattle prices reached late in 2011 should become more familiar if cow-calf production intends to compete for acres of land versus row crop farming in the Midwest and conservation/recreation/urban expansion in other areas.

Each year, new breakthroughs in hybrid seeds or fertilizer mixtures find ways to yield more bushels to the acre – but no one ever seems to find a way to run less acres to the cow.

It will take many years for the Southern Plains to recover from the recent drought and most cattle producers (like those in Colorado and Wyoming that experienced severe drought a decade ago) will not restock nearly as heavy.

Plus, the average age of a cow-calf man is well past retirement age and record prices for all classes are causing many older cowboys to cash in all their chips and call it quits.

Maybe it’s the absence of Western movies, but much of the new generation has not found the romance in cattle production and would rather operate high-tech machinery or find a job in town.

Slaughter cow prices are expected to rise early in 2012, with Southern herds already whittled to a nub and Northern producers finished with their preg-checking and culling.

Ground beef demand remains fairly constant and processors need the leaner product to mix with trimmings from steers and heifers.

More cattlemen will be tempted to take the opportunity to throw in the towel and reassign their land or sell out completely. But as anyone who has grown up around cattle can attest, there is not a more fulfilling way to live or a more wholesome way to raise a family than in beef production.  end_mark

Corbitt Wall
Missouri Federal –State Supervisor
USDA Livestock & Grain Market News
corbitt.wall@ams.usda.gov