Market Reports

Drought conditions in the Northern Plains and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have likely affected regional U.S. cattle production. While much of the effects from the drought in the Northern Plains has likely already played out, it is too early to estimate the impacts of the two hurricanes.

August trade data showed exports continued at a double-digit pace, increasing 15 percent over August 2016. This marks the third month in a row of double digit export increases and extends the year-to-date lead to 15 percent over last year.

The NASS Cattle report for July 1, 2017, estimated that the U.S. cattle herd expanded by 4 percent from July 1, 2015, to 102.6 million head, the largest head count since July 1, 2008.

In January, the USDA reported the U.S. beef cow herd stood at 31.2 million, up 3.5 percent from 2016. While these results were widely reported and published, the purpose of this article is to step back and consider the recent trends in the U.S. beef cow herd.

Current and expected fed cattle prices have declined by approximately $10 per hundredweight (cwt) over the past five weeks. This decline has eroded the projected profitability for feedlots through the rest of 2017.

Commercial beef production for 2017 is revised upward slightly to 26.5 billion pounds due to greater-than-expected commercial slaughter in the second quarter and higher anticipated commercial slaughter in the third and fourth quarters.